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Some features are not available in Source (public version).

Introduction

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  • First, create a schematic scenario;
  • Choose Tools » River Operations to open the River Operations dialog (Figure 1); and
  • Click on the slider below Operations Mode to ON.  

Once you have created forecast models, you can disable operations, but retain these models or overrides using the buttons under Operations Data. The first two buttons in this dialog deal with removing input data, whereas the third one deletes all output data that was created for the forecast models. To clear all operations related data (input, output as a well as overrides), click Clear ALL Operations Data.

Figure 1. River Operations

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Figure 4. Inflow node, Operations forecasting

 

Figure 5. Storage Routing Link, Operations forecasting

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Note: Forecast scenarios are unique to a node and must be configured individually for each node.

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Forecast model type

Description

AverageAllows you to define the average over the last specified number of time-steps.

Function

Allows you to define an expression or define a function to return any value you choose for each time-step in the forecast period. For example:

  • a fixed value; or
  • a fixed proportion of a variable that is available to the Function Editor.

Monthly Average

Allows you to enter an average forecast value, in megalitres per day, to be applied for the whole of each month. You can either enter the monthly average values manually, or import the values from a .CSV file formatted as shown in Table 2.

To trend from "today" to the monthly average, enable the Trend to Value at Rate checkbox and enter a trend rate which is a real number greater than zero but less than one. The observed daily flow rate for the previous month and the number of days of the current month are used to determine the initial flow volume.

Time Series

To specify a forecast based on a time series, you must:

  • use data sources to load a time series or scenario; and
  • specify the number of time-steps that the model will run in.

Time series are assumed to conform with the structure shown in Table 3. Note that any time-stamps contained in a time series are ignored. The observation in the first row of the time series is used for the first time-step of the forecast period, the observation in the second row for the second time-step, and so on, until either there are no more data rows in the time series or the simulation reaches the end of the forecast period.

Trend

A single target value (either positive or negative) plus a recession rate. To specify a trend forecast, enter the target value in megalitres per day, and use the slider to specify the trend rate, which is a real number greater than zero but less than one.

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