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Some features are not available in Source (public version). |
Introduction
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- First, create a manager scenario;
- Choose Tools » River Operations to open the River Operations dialog (Figure 1); and
- Click on the slider below Operations Mode to ON.
Once you have created forecast models, you can disable operations, but retain these models or overrides using the buttons under Operations Data. The first two buttons in this dialog deal with removing input data, whereas the third one deletes all output data that was created for the forecast models. To clear all operations related data (input, output as a well as overrides), click Clear ALL Operations Data.
Figure 1. River Operations
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Forecast model type | Description |
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| Average | Average over the last specified time-steps |
Function | User defined arithmetic expressions/functions |
Monthly Average | Daily average for the month in megalitres per day. |
Time Series | Supports the inclusion of forecast data using data sources. |
Trend | A single target value (either positive or negative) plus a recession rate. |
Average forecast model
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| Allows you to define the average over the last specified number of time-steps. |
Function |
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Allows you to define an expression or function to return any value you choose for each time-step in the forecast period. For example:
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Monthly Average |
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Allows you to enter an average forecast value, in megalitres per day, to be applied for the whole of each month. You can either enter the monthly average values manually, or import the values from a .CSV file formatted as shown |
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in Table 2. To trend from "today" to the monthly average, enable |
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the Trend to Value at |
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Rate checkbox and enter a trend rate which is a real number greater than zero but less than one. The observed daily flow rate for the previous month and the number of days of the current month are used to determine the initial flow volume |
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Table 2. Monthly average forecasting model (data file format)
| Row | Column (comma-separated) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | Month | Forecast Value (ML/d) |
| 2 . .n | month | value |
Time Series | ||
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To specify a forecast based on a time series, you must:
Time series are assumed to conform with the structure shown |
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in Table 3. Note that any time-stamps contained in a time series are ignored. The observation in the first row of the time series is used for the first time-step of the forecast period, the observation in the second row for the second time-step, and so on, until either there are no more data rows in the time series or the simulation reaches the end of the forecast period. |
Table 3. Time series forecasting model (data file format)
| Row | Column (comma-separated) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | |
| 1..n | date | value |
Trend forecast model
Trend | A single target value (either positive or negative) plus a recession rate. To specify a trend forecast, enter the target value in megalitres per day, and use the slider to specify the trend rate, which is a real number greater than zero but less than one. |
Table 2. Monthly average forecasting model (data file format)
| Row | Column (comma-separated) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | Month | Forecast Value (ML/d) |
| 2..n | month | value |
Table 3. Time series forecasting model (data file format)
| Row | Column (comma-separated) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | |
| 1..n | date | value |
Viewing forecasts
The results of executing one or more forecast scenarios can be viewed using the Recording Manager or the tabular editor (to view and override individual values). Ensure that you enabled recording for the parameter that you are forecasting. For example, to forecast flow, enable recording of the Inflow attribute in the Recording Manager. Figure 5 shows an example of the output of a forecasted model. This forecasting scenario consists of two forecast models. A Trend forecast model is run for the first 10 time-steps and the remaining time-steps have a Function forecast model configured.
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