Introduction
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To create a default operations scenario in Source:
- First, create a manager scenario;
- Choose Tools » River Operations to open the River Operations dialog (Figure 1); and
- Click on the slider below Operations Mode to ON.
Once you have created forecast models, you can disable operations, but retain these models or overrides using the buttons under Operations Data. The first two buttons in this dialog deal with removing input data, whereas the third one deletes all output data that was created for the forecast models. To clear all operations related data (input, output as a well as overrides), click Clear ALL Operations Data.
Figure 1. River Operations
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Once operations has been enabled, you can configure forecast input data using under the Forecasting list relevant forecasting list item in a node's feature editor. For example, for the inflow node, choose Inflow Forecast under Additional Flow. Each of the parameters that are involved in creating forecasts handle input data differently.
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| This is different to the Forecasting list item, which relates to ordering for planning and operations models. |
The following forecast models extend the originally played in time series using a model. In the absence of a forecast model to generate forecast values, a default value is used, which is typically zero:
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The Unaccounted difference node and the Gauged Level unaccounted difference at the storage node forecast unaccounted difference ( forecast the possible error). The default value in the absence of a forecast model is zero. The Unaccounted Difference is a time series computed during the historic phase of the run, and is the difference between the modelled value at a point in the system and the actual historic value which has been played in at that point. In the forecast phase, applying the forecast unaccounted difference (a positive value represents a gain; a negative value, a loss) is an attempt to compensate for the known over or under estimation inherent in the model.
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For gauged releases forecast at the storage node, by default, the modelled releases are used by outlets, except where an override value has been provided, either by direct override (using the tabular editor) or by a forecast model. A storage outlet is a physical structure which has minimum and maximum release capabilities. The outlet release forecast/override can be any value, but the model cannot physically release any amount. The forecast/override values are therefore constrained at run-time. This is why the outlet releases each have two columns in the tabular editor, the first shows the modelled value that is actually released by the storage and the second shows the forecast/override. They will be different if the outlet release has been constrained. The second column is blank in the absence of any forecast/override values and in this case, the modelled values are used. Figure 3 shows an example of this. Note that from the 01/02/2011 onwards, the outlet release has been constrained.
Figure 3. Tabular Editor, forecasting, outlet release constrained
Forecast scenarios
A collection of one or more forecasting models is known as a forecast scenario. You can define one or more scenarios for each node. For example, you might define "wet year", "dry year" and "normal year" scenarios, or variations that reflect your most optimistic or pessimistic expectations. To add a forecast scenario, right-click on the item you want to forecast in the relevant node's feature editor and choose Add Forecast Scenario (Figure 34). You can choose the input set that will be associated with a particular forecast scenario. Right click on Forecast Scenario #<number>, then choose Add Forecast Model to add a model.
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When more than one forecast model has been assigned to a forecast scenario, they are ordered from top to bottom in the hierarchical list. The model at the top of the list runs first. You can change the order of model run by dragging the forecast model to the required position in the list. For each model, you must also specify the number of time-steps it will be active for before moving onto the next model in the list. The last model in the list always has a Time Steps value of All Remaining and will be active for the remainder of the forecast period.
Figure 3 4 shows a forecasting scenario (associated with Wet Input Set) with two forecast models. Both Forecast Model #1 (which will run for the first 10 time-steps) and Model #2 (which will run for the remaining time-steps) have been configured as Expression models. To change the name of a forecasting scenario or model, right-click and choose Rename. Choose Delete to remove the scenario or model.
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4. Inflow node, Operations forecasting
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| Forecast scenarios are unique to a node and must be configured individually for each node. |
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Average forecast model
This allows you to specify define the average over the last specified number of time-steps.
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The results of executing one or more forecast scenarios can be viewed using the Recording Manager or the tabular editor (to view and override individual values). Ensure that you enabled recording for the parameter that you are forecasting. For example, to forecast flow, enable recording of the Inflow attribute in the Recording Manager. Figure 4 5 shows the forecasted inflow for a model.
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5. Charting tool, forecast models