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Some features are not available in Source (public version). |
Introduction
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- First, create a schematic scenario;
- Choose Tools » River Operations to open the River Operations dialog (Figure 1); and
- Click on the slider below Operations Mode to ON.
Once you have created forecast models, you can disable operations, but retain these models or overrides using the buttons under Operations Data. The first two buttons in this dialog deal with removing input data, whereas the third one deletes all output data that was created for the forecast models. To clear all operations related data (input, output as a well as overrides), click Clear ALL Operations Data.
Figure 1. River Operations
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Figure 4 shows the Inflow Forecast item for the Inflow node. Choose the forecast model you wish to specify by clicking the appropriate forecast model under Additional Flow Forecast (on the right). The forecast model that is active at the node is indicated by a green tick on the left of the model. In Figure 4, the Trend forecast model is the active model.
The Assigned Scenario Input Sets frame shows the used conditions for all scenario input sets. If ticked (e.g. Default Input Set), all forecast models in this forecast scenario are available for this scenario input set; otherwise, it is the opposite.
Figure 4. Inflow node, Operations forecasting
Figure 5. Storage Routing Link, Operations forecasting
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| Note: Forecast scenarios are unique to a node and must be configured individually for each node. |
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Forecast model type | Description |
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| Average | Allows you to define the average over the last specified number of time-steps. |
Function | Allows you to define a function to return any value you choose for each time-step in the forecast period. For example:
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Monthly Average | Allows you to enter an average forecast value, in megalitres per day, to be applied for the whole of each month. You can either enter the monthly average values manually, or import the values from a .CSV file formatted as shown in Table 2. To trend from "today" to the monthly average, enable the Trend to Value at Rate checkbox and enter a trend rate which is a real number greater than zero but less than one. The observed daily flow rate for the previous month and the number of days of the current month are used to determine the initial flow volume. |
| Pulse | Allows a static forecast model that is applied on a specified date and has priority over other relative forecast models if enabled. The forecast pulse flow rate is entered under the Target Flow configuration, and the pulse start and end dates are specified with the date inputs. The rate of the rise and recession of the pulse is configured by the Rate sliders or can be entered directly as value. For example, the 0.6 Rate of the Pulse Rising indicates that at each time step there is an increase of 60% in the flow volume until the Target Flow is reached.. |
Time Series | To specify a forecast based on a time series, you must:
Time series are assumed to conform with the structure shown in Table 3. Note that any time-stamps contained in a time series are ignored. The observation in the first row of the time series is used for the first time-step of the forecast period, the observation in the second row for the second time-step, and so on, until either there are no more data rows in the time series or the simulation reaches the end of the forecast period. |
Trend | A single target value (either positive or negative) plus a recession rate. To specify a trend forecast, enter the target value in megalitres per day, and use the slider to specify the trend rate, which is a real number greater than zero but less than one. |
Figure 6. Pulse Forecast Model
Table 2. Monthly average forecasting model (data file format)
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| 1..n | date | value |
Operational Forecasting Models in Feature Table
The user can use the Source Feature Table to review, edit, input and output parameters of all used operational forecasting models in a Source project file. Tool menu item Edit » Feature Table... can access Feature Table for this functionality. There are two elements in the left panel related to the Forecasting models: Operations Forecast Models (Figure 7) and Operation Forecast Scenarios (Figure 8).
(a) Operations Forecast Models:
This section includes seven tables (i.e., Average, Function, Monthly Average, Pulse, Time Series, Trend and Use Modelled Data). Each table responds to one of the seven forecast models whose names are used as the table names, and Use Modelled Data is specifically for the MDBA plugin only. Each table includes five key columns for identification purposes as follows:
- Name - the forecast model identification name (often consisting of node, property, forecast scenario and forecast model) in the feature table
- Node - the node (e.g. an Inflow node) where the forecast model is used
- Property- the node’s property (e.g. inflow property) what the forecast model applied for
- Forecast Scenario - the forecast scenario where the forecast model is collected
- Forecast model – the forecast model’s name that is shown in the node editor
The table then listed the columns for the model parameters described in Table 1 (Forecast model types), except the table Trend. The table Trend uses two columns for the single model parameter of the target value in the node editor: (i) the column Target Rate is used for rate-based targets such as inflow, (flow) Predicted Order, (flow) Unaccounted Difference. The column of Target Volume is used for volume-based targets such as (storage) Operating Target, (storage volume) Unaccounted Difference.
Figure 7. Feature Table - Operations Forecast Models
(b)Operation Forecast Scenarios:
This section includes the table Forecast Scenario, which lists the used conditions assigned to all scenario input sets for all forecast scenarios. The table includes four key columns (i.e. Name, Node, Property and Forecast Scenario) and all names of scenario input sets (e.g. Default Input Set and Minimums). Name consisted of Node, Property and Forecast Scenario. The user can edit the assigned condition for all scenario input sets from both this feature table and the node editor.
Figure 8. Feature Table - Forecast Scenario
Viewing forecasts
The results of executing one or more forecast scenarios can be viewed using the Recording Manager or the tabular editor (to view and override individual values). Ensure that you enabled recording for the parameter that you are forecasting. For example, to forecast flow, enable recording of the Inflow attribute in the Recording Manager. Figure 5 9 shows an example of the output of a forecasted model. This forecasting This forecasting scenario consists of two forecast models. A Trend forecast model is run for the first 10 time-steps and the remaining time-steps have a Function forecast model configured.
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