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This model also forecasts flows. Forecasting is required to estimate how much flow is likely to occur at a particular point in the system some time in the future, and hence how much additional water needs to be ordered to meet demand.
Create this model in Source as described in Defining demand models, which results in the window shown in Feature Editor 33. Click Edit to define the rules, which opens the Environmental Demand Model dialog (Figure 44), and Select... to specify where the output will be saved.
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Forecasting
The basic approach to determining water order is to consider the collection of flow rules and determine how much water is required for a given day to meet these rules. As water is not consumed by the EDM, the water order is simply the difference between the calculated water required and the forecast flow at the extraction point on the future delivery day.The EDM allows two forecasting periods, a short term and a medium term. This approach is to reflect real world water management decision making, whereby, depending on the size of the catchment, river operators can generally make a very accurate prediction of the likely flow for the next few days to weeks. After that time the prediction is less accurate. You can use the Expression Editor or specify another scenario to define the method of forecasting. The recommended methods for the look ahead period are to refer to an upstream node with a known travel time.
Base flow
The base flow objective is designed to capture minimum flow rules, such as where flow should be maintained above a certain limit for particular periods of the year. Figure 44 shows the parameters that must be specified for base flow. The controls for Input data and Forecast allow you to upload data as a time series file, an expression, or linking to another scenario.
Figure 44. Water User node (Environmental Demand, Base flow)
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Conditions
The EDM also includes a condition tracker, which can be used to turn rules on and off. If the condition tracker falls bellow a threshold, the rule is turned on. If the condition tracker is above a threshold, then the rule is turned off. Only one condition tracker can be defined for a collection of rules. However, each individual rule can have its own threshold that decides when the rule is turned on. The condition tracker can be used to represent a multitude of environmental or accounting rules that turn flow rules on and off. Examples of using the condition tracker are:
- Representing the ‘health’ of an environmental asset; or
- Representing environmental rules that turn on and off when an account balance exceeds a certain level.
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