Introduction
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To create a default operations scenario in Source:
- First, create a manager scenario;
- Choose Tools » River Operations to open the River Operations dialog (Figure 1); and
- Click on the slider below Operations Mode to ON.
Once you have created forecast models, you can disable operations, but retain these models or overrides using the buttons under Operations Data. The first two buttons in this dialog deal with removing input data, whereas the third one deletes all output data that was created for the forecast models. To clear all operations related data (input, output as a well as overrides), click Clear ALL Operations Data.
Figure 1. River Operations
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The remaining fields summarise what will occur when you complete the warm-up process. Click OK, and then Begin Analysis (Run) to begin the warm-up process.
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Once operations has been enabled, you can configure forecast input data under the relevant forecasting list item in a node's feature editor. For example, for the inflow node, choose Inflow Forecast under Additional Flow. Each of the parameters that are involved in creating forecasts handle input data differently.
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The Unaccounted difference node and the Gauged Level unaccounted difference at the storage node forecast unaccounted difference forecast the possible error. The default value in the absence of a forecast model is zero. The Unaccounted Difference is a time series computed during the historic phase of the run, and is the difference between the modelled value at a point in the system and the actual historic value which has been played in at that point. In the forecast phase, applying the forecast unaccounted difference (a positive value represents a gain; a negative value, a loss) is an attempt to compensate for the known over or under estimation inherent in the model.
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| Note: Unaccounted difference is named so because if the model were perfect, this would always be zero (the modelled value would match the actual values). In reality, the model does not simulate everything and this typically leads to the systematic over or under estimating of flows. |
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A collection of one or more forecasting models is known as a forecast scenario. You can define one or more scenarios for each node. For example, you might define "wet year", "dry year" and "normal year" scenarios, or variations that reflect your most optimistic or pessimistic expectations. To add a forecast scenario, right-click on the item you want to forecast in the relevant node's feature editor and choose Add Forecast Scenario (Figure 4). You can choose the input set that will be associated with a particular forecast scenario. Right click on Forecast Scenario #<number>, then choose Add Forecast Model to add a model.
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| Note: Only one forecast model can be active at a point in time during the simulation. |
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Figure 4. Inflow node, Operations forecasting
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| Note: Forecast scenarios are unique to a node and must be configured individually for each node. |
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